The New York Times (and other news media) reported last week that “500,000 Children May Lose Free School Meals Under Tighter Access to Food Stamps.” The report cited a proposed change in U.S Department of Agriculture (“USDA”) rules recently posted in the Federal Register under which families eligible for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (“TANF”) program would not also be categorically eligible for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (“SNAP”). The focus on student access to free lunches was triggered by a letter to the USDA from Congressman Robert Scott (D-VA), Chairman of the House Committee on Education and Labor, arguing that the discussion of the proposed rule, as posted, did not include the required Regulatory Impact Analysis regarding the rule’s impact on the National School Lunch Program (“NSLP”). The letter referenced a phone briefing from the USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service estimating that more than 500,000 students would lose their automatic eligibility for free meals. Any changes in NSLP eligibility will potentially affect E-rate discounts. But by how much?
The USDA proposal notes that some TANF benefits are non-cash and/or temporary. As such, these benefits may be made available to households that do not meet SNAP income or resource tests. At the present time, however, in an effort to limit state administrative expenses, many states are permitted to automatically qualify all TANF beneficiaries as being eligible for food stamps. SNAP eligibility is the primary determinant of a school’s use of the Community Eligibility Program (“CEP”) for NSLP purposes. CEP percentages, in turn, drive the E-rate discount levels of those schools. To the extent SNAP eligibility is reduced:
- Some schools — those whose percentages of directly certified students would fall under 40% — would no longer be eligible for CEP. This would mean a return to the more burdensome method of collecting NSLP applications (or doing surveys) to establish their NSLP percentages. This does not necessarily mean lower E-rate discounts — an estimated 93% of the 500,000 students would still be eligible for reduced-priced lunches — but it would certainly mean more work to justify these discounts.
- Other schools, while remaining within the CEP system, might see their 90% discounts reduced to 80% when their CEP authorizations are renewed (as is required every four years).
There are at least two sections in the USDA proposal that provide some basis for determining which applicants might be adversely affected and to what extent. The first point to note is that not all states and territories are categorically treating TANF eligibility as being SNAP eligible. If not, they would not be affected. The key paragraph on “state” eligibility indicates:

Although the proposal does not list the states, the USDA website does provide a list dated July 2019 of 42 Broad-Based Categorical Eligibility states and territories. Assuming this to be a more current list, then we can divide the states and territories as shown below. Applicants in the “Affected States and Territories” — including New York — are those most likely to be impacted by the proposed rule change.

To estimate which applicants might be affected, and to what extent, requires a more detailed analysis. Broadly speaking, the proposal provides the following information.

In one statewide analysis for New York we conducted, we estimated that the 9% change projected by USDA would mean that approximately 1% of the schools currently using CEP would no longer be eligible and that 3% of the schools, while still eligible for CEP, would experience an E-rate discount reduction of 10%. The statewide analysis was biased by a significantly large concentration of schools in one major urban city all with high CEP percentages unlikely to be affected by the change. Considering a smaller base of schools, excluding the large urban city schools, we estimated that 3% of the schools would lose CEP and 10% of the schools would see a discount rate reduction.
Individual applicants are likely to be affected in the following ways:
- An applicant currently with a directly certified percentage less than 44-45% would be at risk of losing its CEP status at its next CEP renewal point (1-3 years out).
- An applicant currently with a directly certified percentage of 47-52%, now with a 90% discount, would remain in CEP but would be at risk of dropping to an 80% discount at its next CEP renewal point.
At these marginal CEP levels, the USDA’s proposed changes will be important to track. Comments on the proposed changes are currently due September 23rd (but may be delayed if Rep. Scott’s concerns are addressed).